How Home Prices Have Changed in the Tri-Valley Area Over the Past 5 Years

If you’re buying, selling or just curious about the local housing market in the Tri-Valley, it’s helpful to step back and see how things have changed over the past five years. What was once a dramatic surge in values has given way to a more nuanced and varied market. Let’s take a look at the data, dissect the trends, and draw some implications for today.

Changing Landscape of Home Prices

Five years ago, around 2020, the Tri-Valley area was already gaining momentum thanks to its strong schools, appealing suburban lifestyle, and relatively better value compared to Silicon Valley proper. Since then, the following shifts have occurred:

For example, in the city of San Ramon, the median sale price in September 2025 is approximately $1,369,524, down about 2.2% compared to one year ago. Redfin+1
In Danville, the median sale price in September 2025 is about $1,665,000, up about 0.9% year-over-year. Redfin
Looking farther back, official data from 2020-21 show dramatic rises: For example, in August 2020 the median in Danville was ~$1,411,250, and in August 2021 it rose to ~$1,774,000 (a ~25.7% increase) in one year. CA Housing Department
Similarly, for San Ramon the median rose from ~$1,112,750 in August 2020 to ~$1,520,000 in August 2021 — a ~36.6% increase over that year. CA Housing Department

These figures illustrate two distinct phases: (1) a rapid inflation of home values in 2020-21, and (2) a more moderate or even slightly declining phase more recently.

What’s Gone Up, What’s Slowed

The big takeaway: home values in the Tri-Valley soared in the early pandemic years. But entering 2022-2025, the market has exhibited signs of cooling or at least stabilization.

During the peak growth period (2020-21), some cities in the region saw home-value jumps of 20%-30% or more in a single year.
Since then, the growth has decelerated. In some segments and cities, prices have plateaued or even declined modestly. For instance, San Ramon saw a drop of ~10% from May 2022 to May 2023. Patch
More broadly, a recent report noted that from September 2024 to September 2025 home prices across the Tri-Valley region dropped by about 6%. San Francisco Chronicle

Thus, the five-year story is one of strong cumulative gains (especially 2020-21) followed by a moderation curve.

Why the Big Rises, and Why the Shift

Why the big rises?

Low interest rates and high demand during the early pandemic era drove many buyers into suburban markets like the Tri-Valley.
Buyers prioritized space, good schools, and suburban lifestyle (all strengths of the region).
Supply was limited, especially for well-appointed single-family homes in desirable neighborhoods.

Why the shift toward slower growth or mild decline?

Interest rates increased significantly, reducing purchasing power.
With prices already relatively high in the region, affordability constraints emerged.
Some return-to-office (RTO) trends and commute considerations have dampened suburban demand somewhat.
Inventory in some segments has increased modestly, giving buyers more choices and reducing extreme urgency.
As one piece put it: “Homes in this Bay Area region are selling at a slower pace – and for less.” San Francisco Chronicle

Five-Year Snapshot: What the Numbers Suggest

Putting the pieces together:

If you bought a typical single-family home in San Ramon or Danville around 2020-2021, you likely rode a strong run-up in value through the next 1-2 years.
By 2023-24, the market began to moderate; price increases shrank or paused, and some slight declines appeared in certain areas.
As of late 2025, median prices in some cities are slightly below their recent peaks (or growing only modestly) rather than continually accelerating.
For example: Danville’s 2025 median (~$1.665M) is up slightly from the prior year; San Ramon’s median (~$1.37M) is slightly down year-over-year.

If one were to map an approximate cumulative gain over five years for the “average” Tri-Valley home: perhaps in the range of 40%-60% depending on city, neighborhood, home type and purchase date. (This is a rough estimate based on the large jumps in 2020-21 and the slower growth or slight declines thereafter.)

Neighborhood & Segment Variation Matters

It’s important to note that not all areas and segments are equal:

High-end luxury homes (especially in cities like Danville) often retain value better or decline less than entry-level homes.
Homes with strong amenities (good school zones, updated kitchens/outdoor space, modern finishes) tend to fare better.
Neighborhoods with less congestion, better access, or less commute stress may outperform within the region.
Homes needing major renovation or in less preferred locations may see deeper impact from market moderation.

Therefore, when you talk with clients or write blog posts, emphasise “micro-market” nuances rather than region-wide averages alone.

Implications for Buyers, Sellers & Investors

For Sellers:

If you’re selling in a desirable neighborhood and your home is well-positioned (condition, schools, curb appeal), you may still achieve strong results — but you may not get the double-digit annual increases seen in previous years.
Expect longer marketing times than the frenzy years, and ensure your pricing strategy is realistic and supported by recent comps.
Highlight the home features buyers value now: updated interiors, outdoor space, flexible layouts for remote work, energy efficiency.

For Buyers:

Some of the “extra” premium from the pandemic-fueled surge appears to be moderating — so you may have more room to negotiate in some cases.
But affordability remains a challenge: rates are higher, and entry costs remain steep. Make sure your financing and budget make sense.
Buy homes that will hold value over time: good schools, desirable neighborhood, strong fundamental appeal.
Avoid assuming indefinite double-digit annual growth — plan for more modest long-term appreciation and factor in holding costs.

For Investors:

Focus on properties with value-add potential (updates, ADU opportunities, strong rental demand) rather than expecting “instant flips” based solely on market momentum.
Evaluate the supply side: higher interest rates and slower growth may reduce returns, so run conservative projections.
Keep an eye on market shifts: if interest rates drop or remote-work dynamics change, value could swing.

What This Means for Your Audience in Silicon Valley Web Solutions’ Region

Given that your company (Silicon Valley Web Solutions) serves the Bay Area and the Tri-Valley area is among the markets you likely cover or reference, your clients (homebuyers, sellers, real-estate professionals) will likely benefit from content that emphasises:

A five-year view: showing how far the market has come — and how far the runway may be going forward.
Local data: focusing on specific cities (San Ramon, Danville, Pleasanton, Dublin) and ideally at the neighborhood or ZIP-level.
Actionable insights: e.g., “Here’s where value may be found now”, “Here’s what to expect if you sell in the next 3-6 months”, “Here’s what a buyer should watch”.
SEO keyword alignment: terms like “Tri-Valley home price trends 2025”, “San Ramon price change 5 years”, “Danville residential real estate 2020-2025” would be relevant.

Over the past five years, the Tri-Valley real-estate market has undergone a meaningful transformation: from rapid, double-digit annual price gains in 2020-21 to a more moderate, stabilised and slightly cooling environment by 2024-25. For homeowners, the gains of the boom years still matter—yet the next phase is more about intrinsic value, quality, and timing rather than a perpetual rise.

Whether you’re helping a seller frame their home in this new context, advising a buyer on what they can realistically expect, or positioning investment opportunities for clients, the message is clear: markets still have vitality, but the “easy wind-at-your-back” era of rocket-ship appreciation has softened. Understanding how far the market has come—and where it may be headed—will give your audience a more grounded and strategic perspective.